Fun with Numbers: Publication Odds

Wikipedia ~ Klondike Gold Rush (in Public Domain)

Let’s be quite frank . . . there are more wannabe authors writing books than publishers willing to publish their words.

That discrepancy has led to the advent of creative publishing alternatives, such as virtual publishing on blogs and writing sites, digital publication via e-Books, and publishing houses that straddle the fence between the print world and the virtual world.

Since writers tend to be a rather insecure lot (when they look up from their writing long enough to consider the publication odds stacked against them), let’s offer them some support and encouragement  by putting publication odds into perspective.

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On WEbook, during a vote ostensibly aimed at allowing “readers” to select books for potential publication, writers submitted 500+ works for “peer review.”  Of those submissions, approximately 50 projects made it into the top 10% for publication consideration by the editors.

In other words, 90% of the submissions ended in the virtual slush pile.

A fellow writer, not generally known for insecurity, asked whether anyone could work out the odds in a way that didn’t look so dismal and foreboding.

Not knowing how to respond, I pretended not to see his question.  In other words, I took a lesson from Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, and kept “mum” on the subject.  See Fantasy Dinner Party Challenge.

Wikipedia ~ Klondike Gold Rush (in Public Domain)

A few days later, watching an IMAX movie on Alaska, the response came to me in a brilliant flash:  “Thar’s gold in them thar’ hills!”

During the Gold Rush, 250,000  prospectors headed into the Alaskan wilderness to strike it rich.

Fifty percent (50%) died ~ talk about ending in a Slush Pile!

In contrast, none of the votes held on WEbook have resulted in any fatalities ~ no suicides, no homicides.

The only casualties . . . a few bruised egos from rather childish “back-stabbing” and  “dive bombing” (awarding low ratings unrelated to the quality of the work).

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Wikipedia ~ Klondike Gold Rush (in Public Domain)

Back to Alaska.  Of the 125,000 survivors who managed to eke out an existence during the vigorous 8-month-long winter, approximately 400 struck it rich:

* After gambling with their very survival, only 400 miners out of 250,000 hit the jackpot.

* After climbing over the frozen landscape, wrestling with Grizzlies, and risking frost-bite, the survivors’ success rate was a disheartening  0.16% ~ or about 1/6 of 1%.  Crappy odds, indeed.

If the success rate (1 in 625) is counter-balanced with the corresponding death rate (312.5 in 625), we find that prospectors were 300 times more likely to die than they were to strike it rich!

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Now, let’s return to the much safer world of peer review publishing. After the first vote, WEbook selected 3 projects out of 225 for publication ~ or about 1%.

Of course, many submissions were out of the running before the race even started, due to failure to comply with basic eligibility requirements (like starting the story, or writing more than 3 poems for a personal anthology).

Once the non-conforming projects are dropped from the equation, WEbook published 3 projects out of 100 eligible entries from the first vote ~ a 3% success rate (i.e., 18.75 times the success rate of the Alaskan miners).

Moral of this Morale Boost:  Writers going for the gold face long odds, but landing in a slush pile is better than dying in a pile of slush!

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Note:  After the third vote, WEbook elected not to publish any of the 500+ projects submitted, effectively transforming the promise of “peer review publishing” into nothing more than a futile popularity contest with no “brass ring” awarded to any of the authors who reached the summit.